Southern California Fishing Forecast: Saltwater, Trout, and the Promise of El Niño

May 18, 2026

As the weather warms and the water begins to come alive, we put away the hunting gear and start getting ready for fishing and camping season. For me, that means two things: saltwater fishing here in Southern California and chasing trout in the Eastern Sierra.

Let's start with the salt.

There is already excellent Bluefin Tuna fishing happening out of San Diego at the usual offshore grounds and farther south off Ensenada. Last week, we took a friend's new Grady-White Marlin 300, powered by twin Yamaha 350s, on a run to San Clemente Island. Cruising comfortably at 33 knots made for a quick trip across the water.

We found Yellowtail in good numbers. While the lack of current made live bait and surface action difficult, the spearfishing produced two quality fish. We also got lucky and boated a beautiful 38-inch California Halibut while drifting over deep meter marks. The Rapala 60-inch ruler made measuring her an easy job.

We finished the day on the east end of Catalina Island looking for Red Fish. Once again, the lack of current made for tough fishing, but that's part of the game.

Most of the conversation lately, however, has centered around the coming fall and the developing El Niño pattern, and for good reason. At the time of this writing, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center was forecasting an 82% chance of El Niño developing between May and July, with a 96% chance of it persisting through the winter.

For those of us fishing Southern California waters, that can mean exceptional opportunities for Dorado, Wahoo, and, as we experienced in 2015, even Blue Marlin in U.S. waters. It can also bring more stable weather, lighter winds, and warmer water temperatures that sometimes reach 80 degrees by October. In exceptional years, we've even seen local tuna fishing continue into December. For saltwater anglers, that's an exciting outlook.

So what does that mean for the trout crowd?

Snowpack across much of the western United States has been very light this year. Late-season storms added some much-needed snow to the Sierra and Rockies, even as recently as last week, but they won't dramatically change this season's water conditions. Historically, though, El Niño winters often bring significantly higher precipitation across the West.

Anyone who made their annual ski trip this past winter knows just how disappointing the snow conditions were. If the forecasts hold true, next winter could be a complete reversal, setting up healthier rivers, stronger runoff, and improved stream flows for trout anglers next spring.

Early fishing reports from the Eastern Sierra already suggest a solid start to the season. We'll know a lot more this week as we head toward the Bishop area for a few days of fly fishing.

This summer has the potential to become one that longtime anglers will be talking about for years. If the current El Niño forecast continues to develop, it could make for a very memorable fishing season.

Jason